Raila, Ruto, and Mudavadi to Forge a Historic Coalition ahead of 2027

The collaboration between President William Ruto and the leader of the Azimio coalition, Raila Odinga, has the potential to reshape the country’s politics and give rise to a new alliance before the 2027 General Elections, bringing together leaders and their allies from Nyanza, Western, and Rift Valley.

President Ruto has openly indicated his cooperation with the opposition leader, emphasizing the need to embrace all Kenyans regardless of their political affiliations.

Already, signs of this partnership were evident as several ODM (Orange Democratic Movement) MPs welcomed the president at the International Investment Conference in Homa Bay County, with the country’s leader acknowledging their presence.

“I am pleased today that MPs who have been avoiding my meetings have shown up, and this is a positive sign,” the President said.

Wycliffe Oparanya, the Chairperson of the National Steering Committee of the Azimio coalition and also the Deputy Leader of the ODM party, stated that while there is currently no political cooperation plan with President Ruto, they cannot ignore the possibility of new alliances emerging before the 2027 elections.

“I am the Deputy Leader of the ODM party, and we consult a lot with our party leader (Mr. Odinga). Currently, Azimio is stable, but also remember that no coalition has participated in two elections in its original form,” Mr. Oparanya said, hinting at the possibility of a new coalition.

“So, there is a possibility that the political landscape may change. You never know what will happen in the future,” he added.

In 2022, Mr. Odinga utilized the Azimio coalition and lost to President Ruto in the general elections. Although Homa Bay Town MP Opondo Kaluma suggests that people should not expect much from the friendship between Ruto and Raila, analysts believe there is a possibility that these leaders could unite before 2027, similar to the 2002 scenario.

Political analyst Mark Bichachi states, “The truth is that Raila’s bid for the AU position has completely changed Kenya’s politics.”

Other political analysts suggest that since Musalia Mudavadi, a prominent leader from Western Kenya, will lead the campaign for Raila’s chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC), there is a possibility of a new alliance forming, similar to the 2007 coalition that brought together Ruto, Odinga, and Mudavadi from Western and Nyanza.

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These three, along with other leaders like Najib Balala, the late Joseph Nyaga, and later Charity Ngilu, were members of the ODM National Executive Council known as the Pentagon.

Prof. Macharia Munene of the International American University argues that the apparent unity of President Ruto, Raila Odinga, and Mudavadi is a new Pentagon.

Prof. Munene questions whether Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua could be the major casualty if a Western coalition reemerges, adding that when the president said everyone would be in the government, he might be dismissing Gachagua’s assertion that the government belongs to shareholders.

According to Herman Manyora, another political analyst, “It is evident that there is an agreement between Raila and Ruto.”

“This is due to political interests and external pressure. Eventually, there will be a coalition,” Manyora says.

He adds that the Ruto-Raila coalition will undoubtedly be mutually beneficial for the two leaders, securing their positions.

President Ruto has maintained that through the 2007 political alliance, he helped Mr. Odinga secure the position of Prime Minister.

“Don’t you know I was once in ODM, don’t you know I was once a follower of Baba (Odinga’s nickname), but these days, because I am the president, Baba has become my follower again. So where is the problem? It’s not just words; it’s like that,” President Ruto said during his visit to Nyanza.

He continued, “You know, I voted for Agwambo (Odinga), although he has never voted for me. Now I am waiting for 2027 because if he doesn’t run, I will compete with Kalonzo (Musyoka).”