Darubini Poll Signals Tough 2027 Battle as Voters Focus on Service Delivery

Darubini Poll has today released fresh findings from its May 2026 national survey offering new insights into Kenya is rapidly evolving political landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The report focuses on the popularity of gubernatorial aspirants in selected counties, the best-performing Members of Parliament per county and the top-performing Members of County Assembly in Nairobi County. This marks the third major survey report released by DARUBINI POLL as part of its ongoing national public opinion tracking initiative for the 2027 election cycle. The survey was conducted between May 16 and May 19, 2026 through household face-to-face interviews across selected counties. The survey targeted 500 Kenyan adults in every county in the analysis for the gubernatorial and senate race. The survey targeted counties with a high urban population in order to capture varying perspectives from diverse voter groups. The counties surveyed include Nairobi, Kisumu, Kilifi, Kakamega, Nakuru, Kwale and Mombasa. The study further revealed a growing level of political awareness among Kenyan voters, especially in urban centers where residents are closely following gubernatorial races and development records of elected leaders. Nairobi County In Nairobi County, Governor Johnson Sakaja emerged as the most preferred gubernatorial candidate with 48 percent support compared to Embakasi North MP James Gakuya who garnered 28 percent support with Babu Owino bagging 17%. According to the findings, Sakaja’s popularity was largely boosted by support from families benefiting from the Dishi na County school feeding programme targeting public primary schools. The survey also showed that approximately 58 percent of respondents recognized ongoing ward-based road projects associated with the county administration. James Gakuya’s support base is mostly among voters drawn from Mount Kenya region. Babu Owino, on the other hand, attracted significant support among youthful voters especially within informal settlements. In Kisumu County, Senior Counsel Prof. Tom Ojienda emerged as the leading gubernatorial aspirant with 40 percent support. A majority of respondents indicated confidence in his ability to succeed Governor Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o who is serving his final term in office. However, the findings also pointed to a potentially competitive race involving Deputy Governor Mathews Owiti who continues to campaign on continuity and preservation of the current administration’s development agenda. The survey also examined the political standing of Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga, with 17 percent of respondents expressing support for her gubernatorial ambitions. According to the report, 51 percent of respondents believe internal ODM party politics will play a decisive role in determining her political future. Nakuru County In Nakuru County, Governor Susan Kihika led the race with 42 percent support among respondents. Former Governor Lee Kinyanjui followed with 25 percent while Geoffrey Mwangi garnered 18 percent support. The survey established that Governor Kihika enjoys strong backing from women voters largely due to healthcare programmes and her advocacy against Gender Based Violence. Respondents also cited the Sh100 million Wezesha Fund that provides affordable credit to small business owners as one of the programmes strengthening her support base. Other findings include Kakamega where Governor Fernandez Barasa of ODM enjoys 42% while Cleophas Malala of DCP came second with 27%,Elsie Muhanda 24%,Bony Khalwale 17% and Dr.Sylvester Anami 3%. In Bungoma, Political Affiliation Still Influencing Voter Decisions One of the major findings from the survey was that popularity of many aspirants remains heavily influenced by national political alignments and party affiliations. The report further established that incumbent leaders who are associated with visible development projects and social programmes continue to enjoy a competitive advantage over challengers. DARUBINI POLL noted that the findings should serve as an important benchmark in understanding public expectations and political direction ahead of the 2027 elections. The organization stated that it remains committed to conducting independent and professional research aimed at deepening democratic participation and accountability in Kenya.