Why the Ol Kalou By-Election Tests Ruto, Uhuru and Gachagua Camps’ Grip on Mt Kenya West

The Ol Kalou by-election scheduled for July 16, 2026 has evolved from a routine constituency contest into a symbolic political battleground, exposing the widening power struggle between allies of President William Ruto and his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua.

The seat fell vacant following the death of MP David Kiaraho, who was elected on a Jubilee Party ticket.

Already, several political formations including UDA, Jubilee, Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), the Party of Democratic Unity (PDU), and Martha Karua’s People’s Liberation Party (PLP) have expressed interest in fielding candidates, signalling a crowded and highly competitive race.

Political analysts say the contest reflects a deeper struggle for dominance in Mount Kenya West, coming shortly after Kenya Kwanza consolidated influence in Mount Kenya East following the Mbeere North by-election.

On the other side, the United Opposition—particularly DCP aligned to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua—is seeking to secure its first seat in the 13th Parliament while testing its growing influence in the wider Mount Kenya region.

Political analyst Albert Kasembeli told The Star that the by-election has transcended a parliamentary race and become a broader measure of loyalty, mobilisation strength and regional control.

“Any serious politician understands the Ol Kalou contest is bigger than a parliamentary seat, it is a barometer of power in Mount Kenya. A win for Ruto would strengthen his regional push, while a loss could weaken it, and the same applies to Rigathi Gachagua, and former president Uhuru Kenyatta,” he said.

Political analyst Daniel Orogo echoed similar sentiments, saying the contest reflects shifting and still fragile political alignments in the region.

“The emerging alignment between Uhuru Kenyatta and Rigathi Gachagua is still fragile and largely untested, making this contest a crucial indicator of whether their cooperation can translate into tangible political capital,” he said.

He added that Jubilee’s performance will be closely watched as a measure of its relevance after losing national power in 2022, with a strong showing likely to reinforce Uhuru Kenyatta’s residual influence in the region.

Political tensions at Kiaraho’s requiem service

The political undertones of the contest were evident during the requiem service of the late MP David Kiaraho, where competing narratives of loyalty and influence surfaced.

Gachagua used the platform to assert continued influence in the region, accusing President William Ruto of betraying the people of Mount Kenya.

“Mr. President, you impeached me, but you did not remove me from the hearts of these people, Mt Kenya people still love me, and even more after what happened.” Gachagua said.

He also warned against premature succession politics in Ol Kalou, arguing that it is culturally inappropriate to discuss leadership transitions before burial rites are completed.

Gachagua was responding to Deputy President Kithure Kindiki after he had warned Gachagua and his team to prepare for defeat similar to what had happened in Mbeere North.

“Mimi nimeona professor kindiki unetukosea kama jamii, hii jamii tuko na heshima na mtu yeyote amamye amekufa na sisi hatuwezi ongea mambo ya urithi kabla hajazikwa Umefanya makosa huko tharaka kuongelea mambo ya by electoon kama kiaraho hajazikwa,” Gachagua said.

Sources indicate that the former deputy president’s camp is banking on area senator John Methu, Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia, and Nyandarua Governor Kiarie Badilisha among others for the by-election.

On the UDA side, the party is reportedly banking on area Women Representative Faith Gitau, Kwenya Thuku (Kinangop), Michael Muchira (Oljororok) among others.

In the Jubilee camp, Uhuru Kenyatta is said to be relying on Jubilee deputy party leader Jeremiah Kioni, former governor Francis Kimemia and former Kipipiri MP Amos Kimunya among others.

Candidates confident ahead of race

Recently, speaking during a Citizen TV interview on April 12, Senator John Methu expressed confidence that his political camp would win the seat.

Methu had earlier drawn public attention after telling President Ruto during the requiem mass that he did not fear him.

“If I were to be given a microphone another time, I would say the exact words. I feel very proud of myself that I actually was able to defeat fear and speak before the head of state, and tell him the things that really matter to my people,” Methu said during the Citizen TV interview.

He has consistently maintained that Gachagua is the true Mount Kenya leader, dismissing Deputy President Kithure Kindiki’s influence.

Kindiki, however, has repeatedly dismissed Gachagua’s influence, accusing him of misleading and inciting the public.

During an event in Meru County, Kindiki challenged Gachagua to prepare for another defeat in Ol Kalou.

“I have told him to leave me alone; I haven’t even started with him and he doesn’t know me, I will embarrass him, just wait, there is more ahead. The election is coming in Nyandarua. I am waiting for us to meet with this man,” Kindiki said.

Ruto takes development tone

During Kiaraho’s requiem service, President William Ruto adopted a restrained tone, focusing on development commitments rather than political confrontation.

He pledged to revive stalled infrastructure projects and improve healthcare delivery in the constituency, including upgrading a Level 4 hospital.

“They have spoken on me, but I will not respond here. I will only come here to respond to development,” Ruto said, adding that political disputes would be addressed in appropriate forums.

Jubilee, DCP and PDU stakes rise

Former Nyeri MP Ngunjiri Wambugu, in a social media post, questioned why the DCP side would not allow Jubilee to reclaim the seat.

Referring to Gachagua as “Jofri,” Wambugu claimed the former deputy president is determined to weaken Jubilee in Mount Kenya.

“Jofri wants Jubilee dead, buried & forgotten. He cannot allow it to win the Ol Kalao seat back. He would rather UDA takes it. He knows that Jubilee is the only party that can challenge his outfit in Mt Kenya, & beat him,” Ngunjiri said.

He added, “I told Jubilee leaders Jofri will betray us the first opportunity he gets. I also reminded them I know him more than they do. Now as we plan to field our candidate in Ol Kalao & ask for support from Jofri, lets note he has already said ‘wanaume ni kuonana,” he added.

Jubilee Party deputy leader Jeremiah Kioni has reaffirmed the party’s intention to defend the seat, insisting it falls under opposition cooperation arrangements.

“We have a mutual agreement in the United Opposition. Definitely, we will field a candidate in the forthcoming by-election,” Kioni said.

The DCP has also confirmed participation, opening nominations with fees set at Sh250,000 for general aspirants and Sh125,000 for youth and persons with disabilities.

“The Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) National Elections Board hereby invites qualified and interested candidates to apply for the party ticket in the upcoming Ol Kalou Constituency by-election scheduled for 16th July 2026,” the notice read.

Applicants are required to submit completed forms, supporting documents and proof of payment.

The Party of Democratic Unity (PDU), led by Isaiah Gichu, has also pledged to field a candidate, promising free nomination certificates.

“There will be no financial barrier for aspirants when acquiring nomination certificate. We are committed to giving free certificates to ensure fair participation,” Gichu stated.

He argued that the by-election reflects a deeper struggle between emotional mobilisation politics and state-driven development legitimacy in the mountain region.

Political barometer ahead of 2027

Kobia Koome, a ward aspirant in Meru County, said the heightened political activity reflects deeper tensions within Kenya Kwanza, where internal cohesion is being tested by parallel mobilisation structures and emerging regional blocs.

“In Mount Kenya West, where voter sentiment is highly responsive to regional leadership cues, the Ol Kalou by-election now offers a critical snapshot of loyalty realignment ahead of future national contests,” Koome said.

He added that parties including UDA, Jubilee and DCP are using by-elections as “calibration tools” to measure grassroots acceptance of leadership ahead of the 2027 general election.