Kenya’s Political Journey: Elections, Economy, and the Uncertainty of 2027

By: Lezen Barnaba

Kenya stands at a pivotal crossroads in its political history following the passing of former Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) chairman Wafula Chebukati.

His influence on some of the nation’s most contentious elections continues to reverberate throughout the political landscape.

As Kenyans reflect on previous electoral cycles and the economic trajectory under various administrations, one pressing question looms: What lies ahead in 2027? Will Raila Odinga finally ascend to the presidency, or will William Ruto secure a second term?

The 2017 general election marked a dramatic chapter in Kenya’s political saga. The fierce rivalry between President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga culminated in an unprecedented event.

When the IEBC, led by Chebukati, declared Uhuru the victor with 54% of the vote, Raila contested the results, taking the matter to the Supreme Court. In a landmark ruling, the court nullified the election results, making Kenya the first African nation to have a presidential election overturned by judicial decree.

During his subsequent term, Uhuru pursued the ambitious ‘Big Four Agenda,’ which focused on affordable housing, manufacturing, universal healthcare, and food security.

However, his relationship with Deputy President William Ruto soured, especially after the historic ‘Handshake’ with Raila in 2018, which marked a significant political collaboration.

Despite Uhuru’s support for Raila, Ruto mounted a vigorous campaign branded around the “hustler” movement, ultimately winning a closely contested election with 50.5% of the vote.

Once again, Raila alleged electoral malpractice, yet the Supreme Court upheld Ruto’s victory—marking Raila’s fifth unsuccessful bid for the presidency.

Kenya’s economy has undergone substantial shifts from Uhuru’s presidency (2013-2022) to Ruto’s current administration (2022-present). Under Uhuru, the nation’s GDP soared from Ksh 4.74 trillion in 2013 to over Ksh 11 trillion by 2021, driven by vast infrastructure development.

However, this progress came at a steep price, with national debt ballooning to over Ksh 9 trillion upon his departure from office.

Ruto now grapples with a challenging economic landscape characterized by high debt levels, rising inflation, and increasing unemployment.

In response, he launched the “Hustler Fund,” aimed at empowering small businesses and stimulating economic growth.

The political climate is also in flux following Chebukati’s death in February 2025, which has left a significant void at the IEBC.

The appointment of his successor has ignited fierce debates. Will Ruto’s government safeguard the independence of the IEBC, or will leaders from the opposition—such as Fred Matiang’i, Rigathi Gachagua, Raila Odinga, and Kalonzo Musyoka—accuse him of attempting to manipulate the electoral process?

As the 2027 elections approach, speculation is rife regarding the potential main contenders. Will Raila, undeterred by his previous five losses, seek another opportunity? Could former Interior Chief Secretary Fred Matiang’i, gaining traction within opposition circles, step into the ring? And what of Kalonzo Musyoka, a longstanding ally of Raila, considering a solo campaign?

The upcoming 2027 elections will undoubtedly pose a critical test for Kenya’s democracy, holding significant implications for both the ruling party and the opposition